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Let B be the event that the biased coin is selected, and F be the event that the fair coin is selected. Let H be the event that the coin shows heads.
We are given:
We want to find P(B|H), the probability that the coin is biased given that it showed heads. We can use Bayes' Theorem:
P(B|H) = [P(H|B) * P(B)] / [P(H|B) * P(B) + P(H|F) * P(F)]
Substitute the given values:
P(B|H) = [(1/4) * (1/2)] / [(1/4) * (1/2) + (1/2) * (1/2)]
P(B|H) = (1/8) / (1/8 + 1/4)
P(B|H) = (1/8) / (1/8 + 2/8)
P(B|H) = (1/8) / (3/8)
P(B|H) = 1/3
Correct Answer: 1/3
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