A bank offers loan to its customers on different types of interest namely, fixed rate, floating rate and variable rate. From the past data with the bank, it is known that a customer avails loan on fixed rate, floating rate or variable rate with probabilities 10%, 20% and 70% respectively. A customer after availing loan can pay the loan or default on loan repayment. The bank data suggests that the probability that a person defaults on loan after availing it at fixed rate, floating rate and variable rate is 5%, 3% and 1% respectively. The teacher hasn't uploaded a solution for this question yet.
Let F, L, and V denote the events that a customer avails loan at fixed rate, floating rate, and variable rate, respectively. Let D denote the event that a customer defaults on loan repayment.
We are given:
We want to find P(V|D), the probability that the customer availed the loan at a variable rate given that they defaulted.
Using Bayes' Theorem:
P(V|D) = [P(D|V) * P(V)] / P(D)
First, we need to find P(D), the probability of default. We can use the law of total probability:
P(D) = P(D|F) * P(F) + P(D|L) * P(L) + P(D|V) * P(V)
P(D) = (0.05 * 0.10) + (0.03 * 0.20) + (0.01 * 0.70)
P(D) = 0.005 + 0.006 + 0.007
P(D) = 0.018
Now we can find P(V|D):
P(V|D) = (0.01 * 0.70) / 0.018
P(V|D) = 0.007 / 0.018
P(V|D) = 7/18
Correct Answer: 7/18
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