Class CBSE Class 12 Mathematics Probability Q #967

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Based upon the results of regular medical check-ups in a hospital, it was found that out of 1000 people, 700 were very healthy, 200 maintained average health and 100 had a poor health record.
Let $A_1$: People with good health,
$A_2$: People with average health,
and $A_3$: People with poor health.
During a pandemic, the data expressed that the chances of people contracting the disease from category $A_1$, $A_2$ and $A_3$ are 25%, 35% and 50%, respectively.
COMPETENCY BASED
APPLY
4 Marks 2025 AISSCE(Board Exam) SUBJECTIVE
(i) A person was tested randomly. What is the probability that he/she has contracted the disease ?
(ii) Given that the person has not contracted the disease, what is the probability that the person is from category $A_2$ ?
Explanation
Based on the information provided, here are the step-by-step calculations:Let the events be defined as:$A_1$: Person has good health$A_2$: Person has average health$A_3$: Person has poor health$E$: Person contracts the diseaseFrom the data given:$P(A_1) = \frac{700}{1000} = 0.7$$P(A_2) = \frac{200}{1000} = 0.2$$P(A_3) = \frac{100}{1000} = 0.1$The conditional probabilities of contracting the disease are:$P(E|A_1) = 25\% = 0.25$$P(E|A_2) = 35\% = 0.35$$P(E|A_3) = 50\% = 0.50$(i) Probability that a randomly selected person has contracted the diseaseWe use the Law of Total Probability:$$P(E) = P(E|A_1)P(A_1) + P(E|A_2)P(A_2) + P(E|A_3)P(A_3)$$Substitute the values:$$P(E) = (0.25 \times 0.7) + (0.35 \times 0.2) + (0.50 \times 0.1)$$$$P(E) = 0.175 + 0.07 + 0.05$$$$P(E) = 0.295$$Answer: The probability that the person has contracted the disease is 0.295 (or 29.5%).(ii) Probability that the person is from category $A_2$, given that they have not contracted the diseaseLet $E'$ be the event that the person has not contracted the disease.We need to find $P(A_2|E')$.First, calculate the probability of not contracting the disease, $P(E')$:$$P(E') = 1 - P(E) = 1 - 0.295 = 0.705$$Next, calculate the probability of not contracting the disease given the person is in category $A_2$:$$P(E'|A_2) = 1 - P(E|A_2) = 1 - 0.35 = 0.65$$Now, apply Bayes' Theorem:$$P(A_2|E') = \frac{P(E'|A_2) \cdot P(A_2)}{P(E')}$$Substitute the values:$$P(A_2|E') = \frac{0.65 \times 0.2}{0.705}$$$$P(A_2|E') = \frac{0.13}{0.705}$$$$P(A_2|E') = \frac{130}{705} = \frac{26}{141}$$$$P(A_2|E') \approx 0.1844$$Answer: The probability that the person is from category $A_2$ given they have not contracted the disease is $\frac{26}{141}$ or approximately 0.184.

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Step-by-Step Solution

(i) Probability that a person has contracted the disease:

Let D be the event that a person has contracted the disease.

P(A1) = 700/1000 = 0.7

P(A2) = 200/1000 = 0.2

P(A3) = 100/1000 = 0.1

P(D|A1) = 0.25

P(D|A2) = 0.35

P(D|A3) = 0.50

Using the law of total probability:

P(D) = P(D|A1)P(A1) + P(D|A2)P(A2) + P(D|A3)P(A3)

P(D) = (0.25)(0.7) + (0.35)(0.2) + (0.50)(0.1)

P(D) = 0.175 + 0.07 + 0.05 = 0.295

(ii) Probability that the person is from category A2 given that the person has not contracted the disease:

Let D' be the event that a person has not contracted the disease.

We need to find P(A2|D').

P(D') = 1 - P(D) = 1 - 0.295 = 0.705

P(D'|A2) = 1 - P(D|A2) = 1 - 0.35 = 0.65

Using Bayes' Theorem:

P(A2|D') = [P(D'|A2) * P(A2)] / P(D')

P(A2|D') = (0.65 * 0.2) / 0.705

P(A2|D') = 0.13 / 0.705 ≈ 0.1844

Correct Answer: (i) 0.295, (ii) 0.1844

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Pedagogical Audit
Bloom's Analysis: This is an APPLY question because it requires the student to apply the concepts of probability, specifically Bayes' theorem and the law of total probability, to solve a real-world problem presented in the case study.
Knowledge Dimension: CONCEPTUAL
Justification: The question requires understanding of probability concepts like conditional probability and Bayes' theorem to solve the problem. It's not just about recalling facts but applying the concepts to a new situation.
Syllabus Audit: In the context of CBSE Class 12, this is classified as COMPETENCY. The question assesses the student's ability to apply probability concepts to a real-world scenario, aligning with competency-based assessment principles.