(i) Probability that a person has contracted the disease:
Let D be the event that a person has contracted the disease.
P(A1) = 700/1000 = 0.7
P(A2) = 200/1000 = 0.2
P(A3) = 100/1000 = 0.1
P(D|A1) = 0.25
P(D|A2) = 0.35
P(D|A3) = 0.50
Using the law of total probability:
P(D) = P(D|A1)P(A1) + P(D|A2)P(A2) + P(D|A3)P(A3)
P(D) = (0.25)(0.7) + (0.35)(0.2) + (0.50)(0.1)
P(D) = 0.175 + 0.07 + 0.05 = 0.295
(ii) Probability that the person is from category A2 given that the person has not contracted the disease:
Let D' be the event that a person has not contracted the disease.
We need to find P(A2|D').
P(D') = 1 - P(D) = 1 - 0.295 = 0.705
P(D'|A2) = 1 - P(D|A2) = 1 - 0.35 = 0.65
Using Bayes' Theorem:
P(A2|D') = [P(D'|A2) * P(A2)] / P(D')
P(A2|D') = (0.65 * 0.2) / 0.705
P(A2|D') = 0.13 / 0.705 ≈ 0.1844
Correct Answer: (i) 0.295, (ii) 0.1844
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